What moves crude oil prices (WTI): supply, demand and the weekly data
By World Macro News ยท Updated 2026-10-26
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the main US crude oil benchmark, priced in dollars per barrel. Brent is the international benchmark, and the two usually move together. Oil is driven by physical supply and demand, but traders react to expectations, so news about the future often matters more than today's barrels.
Supply: OPEC+ and producers
OPEC and its partners, together called OPEC+, agree how much oil member countries will pump. A surprise cut usually lifts prices and a larger-than-expected increase usually lowers them. Outside OPEC+, US shale output responds to price with a delay of months.
Supply risk: geopolitics
Conflict near major producing regions or shipping routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, adds a "risk premium" to oil. Sanctions on exporters can tighten supply too. When tension eases, for example through talks or a ceasefire, the premium can disappear quickly and prices fall.
Demand: growth and the economy
Oil demand follows economic activity, especially in the US and China. Weak growth data, trade disputes or recession fears usually weigh on oil. Strong data and travel seasons usually support it.
The weekly inventory reports
Every Wednesday the US Energy Information Administration publishes stock levels for crude oil, petrol and distillates. A bigger draw (fall in stocks) than expected is usually bullish and a surprise build is usually bearish. The report comes out at 10:30 AM New York time, which is 8:00 PM IST in the US summer and 9:00 PM IST in the US winter. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
The US dollar and inflation
Like gold, oil is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar can weigh on it. Oil also feeds into inflation: a big rise in oil can push inflation expectations and bond yields up, which affects gold, currencies and stock indices too. That is why our news page often lists oil as a driver for other markets.
Currencies linked to oil
The Canadian dollar tends to strengthen when oil rises, because Canada is a large exporter, so USD/CAD often falls when oil climbs. The Norwegian krone shows a similar link.
Today's view, levels and headlines are on the crude oil news page.
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Market information only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold, oil, crypto, stocks and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. Research is gathered by AI from the linked sources and can contain mistakes; check the source. Prices are snapshots with the time shown. Risk disclaimer.