Crude oil (WTI) news and analysis today

Updated Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:15 PM IST

US Oil (WTI) 102.77 at Mon 26 Oct, ~10:10 PM IST (Trading Economics CFD quote) · Trading Economics

Pared a 2% drop to about -0.5% as Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials hold talks in Tehran; Houthi strikes on Saudi sites keep supply risk alive

▲ Bullish, headline-driven (cooling)

Research view · 0-24 hours, gap risk · confidence Low. Last week: +2.3% last week per Reuters (TradingKey +4.4%; Brent +6%); about -0.5% Monday after a 2% morning drop

What is driving Crude oil

Friday: WTI +3.82% to $103.27, Brent +3.14% to $116.72 (6-month high). Monday: WTI about $101, Brent about $114.5 (Reuters, IANS) as de-escalation hopes trimmed the premium. Phillip Nova calls the dip position adjustment, not a supply improvement; Murban rose about 3% above $118 (FinanceFeeds), a sign buyers pay up for crude that avoids Hormuz.

Fundamental view

This affects expected supply, not confirmed actual supply. No Saudi production loss has been reported, and MUFG says Hormuz flows are near pre-conflict levels. Libya has an unquantified pipeline curtailment.

Technical view

Verified levels are thin after broker levels were removed. Friday's settle at $103.27 (Reuters) is the nearest reference above; Brent's Friday close of $116.72 was a 6-month high.

▲ Resistance: 103.27
▼ Support: (levels from Reuters (Friday settle))

Outlook

Short term: Trump headlines can swing it either way: he ruled out a strike 'today' but later said 'there's a possibility I will'. EIA weekly stocks (Wed 8:00 PM IST) is the first hard-data check.

Medium term: The premium lasts only if supply is actually lost or Hormuz traffic is disrupted. A confirmed no-damage statement from Aramco would deflate it.

Risks: The Houthis fired another barrage on 25 Oct (10 ballistic missiles intercepted over the south, debris near Mecca) and claim strikes on the East-West Pipeline and Rabigh; none of that is confirmed by Aramco or Riyadh. Hormuz traffic data conflict: IMF PortWatch logged 4 transits on 18 Oct vs an 85/day baseline, while MUFG says flows are near pre-conflict levels. TD Securities sees near-term risk skewed higher.

Upcoming events for Crude oil (IST)

Wed 28 Oct

Thu 29 Oct

Sat 31 Oct

Latest Crude oil news

1Trump & US policy25-26 Oct 2026 (Reuters 26 Oct 9:56 AM IST)

Trump rules out an Iran strike "today", weighs "finish it off" vs "deal"; Qatar mediates and oil falls ~2% before paring

What it meansThe weekend strike did not happen and mediation is active, so oil gave back about 2% and gold bounced. Trump frames it as strike-or-deal, so oil, gold, CAD and JPY stay headline-driven into the 3 Nov midterms.

Market reactionBy 9:56 AM IST: Brent -1.89% to $114.51, WTI -2.16% to $101.04 (Reuters); IANS had WTI $100.69 (-2.49%). Gold +0.5% to $4,014.49 by 2:54 PM IST as lower oil eased inflation fears (Reuters). US futures at 2:16 PM IST: Dow +0.32% near 52,560, S&P 500 +0.14% (FXStreet). By 4:35 PM IST WTI was about $100.39 and gold about $4,016 (FXStreet). WTI was still about $101.02 (-2.18%) at ~9:10 PM IST, then pared the drop to about $102.77 (-0.48%) by ~10:10 PM IST (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance had December WTI $102.98, -0.28%).

Next 24 hours
Oil premium trimmed early, then mostly rebuilt by the US afternoon; headline whipsaw risk stays high.
2 to 5 days
Strike-or-deal binary into 3 Nov.
2 to 12 weeks
Post-midterm strike risk remains.
Read the full report

Leaving the White House on 25 Oct, Trump said "there will not be a strike today" and, asked whether strikes could resume, "Would I tell you that?" Later he said "There's a possibility I will" and also "a possibility we'll have a nice, big, beautiful agreement", while doubting Iran would hold a deal. Reuters reported Qatari mediators in Tehran. Earlier (23 Oct rally) he said the US "may do another little" round. On Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures he said: "Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" (24NewsHD). On 26 Oct Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence head Ibrahim Kalin were in Tehran for security talks, after Qatari mediators arrived on 25 Oct (AP).

WTIUSDCADUSDJPYXAUUSDBTCUSDUS30US500Source: Gulf News; Reuters via Arab News

2Geopolitics23-25 Oct 2026

Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites; Aramco evacuates Dhahran HQ

What it meansSaudi oil infrastructure is now a target. Oil carries a war premium, and any confirmed damage means a gap higher. A confirmed no-damage statement means the premium fades.

Market reactionBrent +3.14% to $116.72 (6-month high, +6.24% w/w); WTI +3.82% to $103.27; gold under $4,000

Next 24 hours
The Monday open saw oil ease on Iran headlines instead of gapping higher.
2 to 5 days
Follow-through only if new strikes or physical disruption follow.
2 to 12 weeks
Persists only with real supply loss.
Read the full report

Over 48 hours to 24 Oct the Houthis claimed attacks on the Saudi Defence Ministry, Dammam airport (two killed), an Aramco site in Yanbu and Abha airport, and Aramco evacuated its Dhahran HQ. On 25 Oct the coalition intercepted a missile aimed at Riyadh and 10 ballistic missiles over the south; debris injured two people (Saudi Press Agency). No production loss has been confirmed.

WTIUSDCADUSDJPYXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: The National

3Rates & central banks22-23 Oct 2026

Fed repricing: October hike odds near 9%, December hike about 80% priced

What it meansThere will be no hike on Wednesday, but a December hike is almost fully priced. Warsh's tone decides the next move in yields, the USD, gold and BTC.

Market reaction10-year Treasury yield back below 5% on 26 Oct after ending last week at 5% (FXStreet); dollar index 101.80, little changed (Reuters)

Next 24 hours
A whipsaw is likely between the statement and the presser.
2 to 5 days
The dot plot is not due at this meeting; guidance is the only signal.
2 to 12 weeks
It decides the December path.
Read the full report

The Fed funds range is 3.75-4.00% after a September hike (12-0 vote). In a Reuters poll (16-20 Oct), 94 of 100 economists expect a hold on 28 Oct and all 100 expect a December hike. September CPI was 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%).

All USD pairsXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: Reuters via MarketScreener; FXStreet

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