USD/JPY news and analysis today

Updated Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:15 PM IST

Dollar / Yen 157.61 at Mon 26 Oct, ~10:10 PM IST (Trading Economics quote) · Trading Economics

At 157.61 (+0.47%) in US trading, just above the 157.20-157.50 resistance zone, as the dollar firms before FOMC and the BoJ; the sell idea still needs a post-BoJ rejection

▼ Bearish-leaning

Research view · 2-5 days (FOMC + BoJ) · confidence Low-Medium. Last week: Yen +0.8% last week (Reuters)

What is driving USD/JPY

Its worst session in nearly a month. Falling Treasury yields narrowed the US-Japan spread. Speculators are net long JPY.

Fundamental view

JPY: Tokyo core-core CPI rose to 3.0% and the BoJ hiked in September; about 70% of economists see another hike by year-end. USD: yields eased from 5%. Risk-off and a narrowing spread favour the yen.

Technical view

157.20-157.50, a former support zone, now caps (FXStreet). Bear case: a break of the 156.10-156.40 lows (29 Sep, 23 Oct) opens 155.35 (17 Sep low). Upside levels: 158.40 (21 Oct high), then 159.00.

▲ Resistance: 157.20 · 157.50 · 157.80 · 158.40 · 159.00
▼ Support: 156.40 · 156.10 · 156.00 · 155.35 (levels from FXStreet (26 Oct); UOB via FXStreet (26 Oct))

Outlook

Short term: FOMC (Wed 11:30 PM IST) moves US yields; Tokyo core CPI (Fri 5:00 AM IST, forecast 2.6% vs 2.7%) and the BoJ (Fri ~8:30 AM IST, Ueda 12:00 PM IST) move the yen side.

Medium term: A sustained downtrend needs both a BoJ December hike signal and lower US yields.

Risks: A hawkish Fed could push the 10-year back above 5%. Official intervention risk caps rallies toward 160, which favours selling rallies but can also cause sharp squeezes.

Upcoming events for USD/JPY (IST)

Tue 27 Oct

Wed 28 Oct

Thu 29 Oct

Fri 30 Oct

Mon 2 Nov

Latest USD/JPY news

1Trump & US policy25-26 Oct 2026 (Reuters 26 Oct 9:56 AM IST)

Trump rules out an Iran strike "today", weighs "finish it off" vs "deal"; Qatar mediates and oil falls ~2% before paring

What it meansThe weekend strike did not happen and mediation is active, so oil gave back about 2% and gold bounced. Trump frames it as strike-or-deal, so oil, gold, CAD and JPY stay headline-driven into the 3 Nov midterms.

Market reactionBy 9:56 AM IST: Brent -1.89% to $114.51, WTI -2.16% to $101.04 (Reuters); IANS had WTI $100.69 (-2.49%). Gold +0.5% to $4,014.49 by 2:54 PM IST as lower oil eased inflation fears (Reuters). US futures at 2:16 PM IST: Dow +0.32% near 52,560, S&P 500 +0.14% (FXStreet). By 4:35 PM IST WTI was about $100.39 and gold about $4,016 (FXStreet). WTI was still about $101.02 (-2.18%) at ~9:10 PM IST, then pared the drop to about $102.77 (-0.48%) by ~10:10 PM IST (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance had December WTI $102.98, -0.28%).

Next 24 hours
Oil premium trimmed early, then mostly rebuilt by the US afternoon; headline whipsaw risk stays high.
2 to 5 days
Strike-or-deal binary into 3 Nov.
2 to 12 weeks
Post-midterm strike risk remains.
Read the full report

Leaving the White House on 25 Oct, Trump said "there will not be a strike today" and, asked whether strikes could resume, "Would I tell you that?" Later he said "There's a possibility I will" and also "a possibility we'll have a nice, big, beautiful agreement", while doubting Iran would hold a deal. Reuters reported Qatari mediators in Tehran. Earlier (23 Oct rally) he said the US "may do another little" round. On Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures he said: "Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" (24NewsHD). On 26 Oct Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence head Ibrahim Kalin were in Tehran for security talks, after Qatari mediators arrived on 25 Oct (AP).

WTIUSDCADUSDJPYXAUUSDBTCUSDUS30US500Source: Gulf News; Reuters via Arab News

2Geopolitics23-25 Oct 2026

Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites; Aramco evacuates Dhahran HQ

What it meansSaudi oil infrastructure is now a target. Oil carries a war premium, and any confirmed damage means a gap higher. A confirmed no-damage statement means the premium fades.

Market reactionBrent +3.14% to $116.72 (6-month high, +6.24% w/w); WTI +3.82% to $103.27; gold under $4,000

Next 24 hours
The Monday open saw oil ease on Iran headlines instead of gapping higher.
2 to 5 days
Follow-through only if new strikes or physical disruption follow.
2 to 12 weeks
Persists only with real supply loss.
Read the full report

Over 48 hours to 24 Oct the Houthis claimed attacks on the Saudi Defence Ministry, Dammam airport (two killed), an Aramco site in Yanbu and Abha airport, and Aramco evacuated its Dhahran HQ. On 25 Oct the coalition intercepted a missile aimed at Riyadh and 10 ballistic missiles over the south; debris injured two people (Saudi Press Agency). No production loss has been confirmed.

WTIUSDCADUSDJPYXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: The National

3Rates & central banks22-23 Oct 2026

Fed repricing: October hike odds near 9%, December hike about 80% priced

What it meansThere will be no hike on Wednesday, but a December hike is almost fully priced. Warsh's tone decides the next move in yields, the USD, gold and BTC.

Market reaction10-year Treasury yield back below 5% on 26 Oct after ending last week at 5% (FXStreet); dollar index 101.80, little changed (Reuters)

Next 24 hours
A whipsaw is likely between the statement and the presser.
2 to 5 days
The dot plot is not due at this meeting; guidance is the only signal.
2 to 12 weeks
It decides the December path.
Read the full report

The Fed funds range is 3.75-4.00% after a September hike (12-0 vote). In a Reuters poll (16-20 Oct), 94 of 100 economists expect a hold on 28 Oct and all 100 expect a December hike. September CPI was 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%).

All USD pairsXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: Reuters via MarketScreener; FXStreet

4Market fundamentals22-23 Oct 2026 (CryptoTicker 23 Oct 11:45 AM IST)

AI-spending doubts hit tech: Nasdaq 100 -3% on 22 Oct after Meta results and Huang comments

What it meansAI-spending doubts flipped markets to risk-off. That helps the yen and franc and hurts Bitcoin and AUD/NZD.

Market reactionNasdaq 100 -3% on 22 Oct (The Telegraph); S&P 500 -1.2% to 7,663 (Yahoo Finance)

Next 24 hours
Haven currencies stay bid.
2 to 5 days
Mean reversion is possible if earnings stabilise.
2 to 12 weeks
A lasting capex cut would weigh on growth and on risk assets.
Read the full report

Several megacap tech companies missed expectations, and Tesla cut its spending forecast, which markets read as a warning on the AI and data-centre investment cycle. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% on Thursday; the Dow fell 1.2% on Friday.

US100US500USDJPYUSDCHFBTCUSDAUDUSDNZDUSDSource: The Telegraph via AOL; Yahoo Finance

Market information only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold, oil, crypto, stocks and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. Research is gathered by AI from the linked sources and can contain mistakes; check the source. Prices are snapshots with the time shown. Risk disclaimer.