EUR/USD news and analysis today

Updated Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:15 PM IST

Euro / Dollar 1.1178 at Mon 26 Oct, ~10:10 PM IST (Trading Economics quote) · Trading Economics

Euro leads the majors on Monday (EUR/JPY +0.25%) as French yields ease after Moody's kept France at Aa3; the EUR/USD move is small

◆ Neutral

Research view · Event-driven (ECB Thu) · confidence Low. Last week: -0.3% last week

What is driving EUR/USD

Trading about 0.8% above the 2026 low of 1.1113. Flash composite PMI eased to 51.9. French 10-year yields hit a 24-year high above 5% last week, then eased to about 4.99% after Moody's affirmed Aa3 (negative outlook) instead of the expected downgrade.

Fundamental view

EUR: the ECB is expected to hold (ECB: deposit rate 2.50%, main refinancing rate 2.65% since 16 Sep); growth is soft and French fiscal risk weighs. USD: Fed on hold now with a December hike about 80% priced. The two roughly offset.

Technical view

A daily close below the 2026 low at 1.1113 is bearish. FXStreet: RSI about 39 and the 20-day EMA at 1.1254 caps; a sustained break above it eases the downside pressure.

▲ Resistance: 1.1254
▼ Support: 1.1113 (levels from FXStreet (26 Oct); 2026 low (Reuters))

Outlook

Short term: Range-bound into FOMC (Wed) and ECB (Thu 6:45 PM IST). Lagarde's press conference (7:15 PM IST) and US PCE land within the same hour on Thursday.

Medium term: Direction depends on whether the Fed hikes in December while the ECB stays put.

Risks: French spreads are a tail risk. Eurozone Q3 GDP (Fri, forecast 0.2% q/q vs 0.6%) could weigh on the euro. The ECB deposit rate (2.50%) rests on one calendar source (see Notes).

Upcoming events for EUR/USD (IST)

Mon 26 Oct

2:30 PMIST

●○○ MediumEURUSD

German Ifo Business Climate (Oct; fc 90.0, prev 89.9)

Trade through it at reduced size

✓ Actual 90.2 vs forecast 90.0 (prev 89.9); current assessment 88.8 (prev 89.5), expectations 91.6 (prev 90.4). Reaction: no measurable EUR/USD move reported by FXStreet or investingLive; EUR/USD stays near 1.1200.

Tue 27 Oct

Wed 28 Oct

Thu 29 Oct

Fri 30 Oct

Mon 2 Nov

Latest EUR/USD news

3Rates & central banks22-23 Oct 2026

Fed repricing: October hike odds near 9%, December hike about 80% priced

What it meansThere will be no hike on Wednesday, but a December hike is almost fully priced. Warsh's tone decides the next move in yields, the USD, gold and BTC.

Market reaction10-year Treasury yield back below 5% on 26 Oct after ending last week at 5% (FXStreet); dollar index 101.80, little changed (Reuters)

Next 24 hours
A whipsaw is likely between the statement and the presser.
2 to 5 days
The dot plot is not due at this meeting; guidance is the only signal.
2 to 12 weeks
It decides the December path.
Read the full report

The Fed funds range is 3.75-4.00% after a September hike (12-0 vote). In a Reuters poll (16-20 Oct), 94 of 100 economists expect a hold on 28 Oct and all 100 expect a December hike. September CPI was 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%).

All USD pairsXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: Reuters via MarketScreener; FXStreet

Market information only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold, oil, crypto, stocks and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. Research is gathered by AI from the linked sources and can contain mistakes; check the source. Prices are snapshots with the time shown. Risk disclaimer.