Gold (XAU/USD) news and analysis today

Updated Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:15 PM IST

Gold 4017.03 at Mon 26 Oct, ~10:10 PM IST (Trading Economics spot quote) · Trading Economics

Holding about $4,017 (+0.6%) as softer oil eases inflation fears; a December Fed hike is still priced, which caps the rebound (Kitco)

▼ Bearish-leaning

Research view · 2-5 days, FOMC-dependent · confidence Low-Medium. Last week: About -4% last week (FXStreet)

What is driving Gold

Spot $4,014 on Monday (Reuters, 2:54 PM IST), up from Friday's $3,975 low, the lowest since 20 July. ING notes gold failed to benefit from the tech sell-off. FXStreet (23 Oct): daily RSI below 40 and price below the 20-, 50- and 100-day averages ($4,150 / $4,300 / $4,220).

Fundamental view

Bearish while oil keeps inflation fears alive and a December Fed hike stays about 80% priced (CME FedWatch via Reuters, 26 Oct). Monday's bounce is relief from lower oil, not a change in the rate story. Higher rates raise the cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

Technical view

Bear case needs a 4H close below Friday's $3,975 low and a failed retest from below (FXStreet: a break of the $3,970-4,000 zone opens $3,800 / $3,720). Bull case needs a reclaim of $4,100, former range support now resistance (FXStreet), then the 100-period EMA at $4,136.

▲ Resistance: 4,100 · 4,136 · 4,200
▼ Support: 3,975 · 3,800 · 3,720 (levels from Reuters (Fri low), FXStreet (26 and 23 Oct))

Outlook

Short term: Expect two-way swings into FOMC (Wed 11:30 PM IST) and PCE (Thu 6:00 PM IST). A hawkish hold extends the drop; a soft PCE can trigger a short squeeze.

Medium term: The trend lasts only if the Fed actually delivers the December hike. A de-escalation that drops oil would remove the main driver.

Risks: Gold has historically rebounded on escalation shocks; a direct US-Iran strike could flip it into a haven bid. Central-bank buying and ETF flow data were not verified this week.

Upcoming events for Gold (IST)

Tue 27 Oct

Wed 28 Oct

Thu 29 Oct

Fri 30 Oct

Mon 2 Nov

Latest Gold news

1Trump & US policy25-26 Oct 2026 (Reuters 26 Oct 9:56 AM IST)

Trump rules out an Iran strike "today", weighs "finish it off" vs "deal"; Qatar mediates and oil falls ~2% before paring

What it meansThe weekend strike did not happen and mediation is active, so oil gave back about 2% and gold bounced. Trump frames it as strike-or-deal, so oil, gold, CAD and JPY stay headline-driven into the 3 Nov midterms.

Market reactionBy 9:56 AM IST: Brent -1.89% to $114.51, WTI -2.16% to $101.04 (Reuters); IANS had WTI $100.69 (-2.49%). Gold +0.5% to $4,014.49 by 2:54 PM IST as lower oil eased inflation fears (Reuters). US futures at 2:16 PM IST: Dow +0.32% near 52,560, S&P 500 +0.14% (FXStreet). By 4:35 PM IST WTI was about $100.39 and gold about $4,016 (FXStreet). WTI was still about $101.02 (-2.18%) at ~9:10 PM IST, then pared the drop to about $102.77 (-0.48%) by ~10:10 PM IST (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance had December WTI $102.98, -0.28%).

Next 24 hours
Oil premium trimmed early, then mostly rebuilt by the US afternoon; headline whipsaw risk stays high.
2 to 5 days
Strike-or-deal binary into 3 Nov.
2 to 12 weeks
Post-midterm strike risk remains.
Read the full report

Leaving the White House on 25 Oct, Trump said "there will not be a strike today" and, asked whether strikes could resume, "Would I tell you that?" Later he said "There's a possibility I will" and also "a possibility we'll have a nice, big, beautiful agreement", while doubting Iran would hold a deal. Reuters reported Qatari mediators in Tehran. Earlier (23 Oct rally) he said the US "may do another little" round. On Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures he said: "Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" (24NewsHD). On 26 Oct Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence head Ibrahim Kalin were in Tehran for security talks, after Qatari mediators arrived on 25 Oct (AP).

WTIUSDCADUSDJPYXAUUSDBTCUSDUS30US500Source: Gulf News; Reuters via Arab News

2Geopolitics23-25 Oct 2026

Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites; Aramco evacuates Dhahran HQ

What it meansSaudi oil infrastructure is now a target. Oil carries a war premium, and any confirmed damage means a gap higher. A confirmed no-damage statement means the premium fades.

Market reactionBrent +3.14% to $116.72 (6-month high, +6.24% w/w); WTI +3.82% to $103.27; gold under $4,000

Next 24 hours
The Monday open saw oil ease on Iran headlines instead of gapping higher.
2 to 5 days
Follow-through only if new strikes or physical disruption follow.
2 to 12 weeks
Persists only with real supply loss.
Read the full report

Over 48 hours to 24 Oct the Houthis claimed attacks on the Saudi Defence Ministry, Dammam airport (two killed), an Aramco site in Yanbu and Abha airport, and Aramco evacuated its Dhahran HQ. On 25 Oct the coalition intercepted a missile aimed at Riyadh and 10 ballistic missiles over the south; debris injured two people (Saudi Press Agency). No production loss has been confirmed.

WTIUSDCADUSDJPYXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: The National

3Rates & central banks22-23 Oct 2026

Fed repricing: October hike odds near 9%, December hike about 80% priced

What it meansThere will be no hike on Wednesday, but a December hike is almost fully priced. Warsh's tone decides the next move in yields, the USD, gold and BTC.

Market reaction10-year Treasury yield back below 5% on 26 Oct after ending last week at 5% (FXStreet); dollar index 101.80, little changed (Reuters)

Next 24 hours
A whipsaw is likely between the statement and the presser.
2 to 5 days
The dot plot is not due at this meeting; guidance is the only signal.
2 to 12 weeks
It decides the December path.
Read the full report

The Fed funds range is 3.75-4.00% after a September hike (12-0 vote). In a Reuters poll (16-20 Oct), 94 of 100 economists expect a hold on 28 Oct and all 100 expect a December hike. September CPI was 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%).

All USD pairsXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: Reuters via MarketScreener; FXStreet

5Technical break23 Oct 2026 (Reuters 26 Oct 3:13 PM IST)

Gold falls nearly 4% in a week to $3,975, its lowest since July

What it means$4,000 broke because markets fear rate hikes, not because of fear itself. While gold stays below $4,100, rallies are for selling after FOMC.

Market reactionXAUUSD about -4% on the week with a $3,975 low on Fri 23 Oct (lowest since 20 July, Reuters). Monday: +0.5% to about $4,016 at 4:35 PM IST (FXStreet).

Next 24 hours
A fragile bounce to about $4,016 before FOMC; FXStreet sees resistance near $4,020 and $4,131.
2 to 5 days
The trend stays down while price is below $4,100 (FXStreet).
2 to 12 weeks
Depends on the Fed's December decision.
Read the full report

Gold lost nearly 4% last week and touched $3,975 on Friday, its lowest since 20 July, as the oil rally raised inflation and Fed-hike fears (FXStreet; Reuters). On Monday UBS's Giovanni Staunovo said $4,000 "is seen by some as a buying opportunity" (Reuters).

XAUUSDSource: Reuters via MarketScreener; FXStreet

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