Bitcoin (BTC/USD) news and analysis today

Updated Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:15 PM IST

Bitcoin 79774 at Mon 26 Oct, ~10:15 PM IST · CoinGecko

Back below $80,000 (about $79,770, -0.8% over 24h) even as US stocks rise; the $79,146 weekend low is less than 1% away

▼ Bearish-leaning

Research view · 0-5 days · confidence Low. Last week: -1.0% (to Fri close)

What is driving Bitcoin

On Saturday it traded below the 15 Oct low ($79,676) intraday and then recovered to about $80,936 on Sunday. About $810M of crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, $689M of them longs (CoinGlass data via Bitcoin.com News). The 50-day average is near $81,700.

Fundamental view

Bearish tilt. Risk-off in tech, ETF outflows on 22 Oct and higher-for-longer rate pricing weigh. No network, exchange or regulatory shock was found; this is a macro and positioning move.

Technical view

Bear case: a daily close below the $79,146 weekend low. Bull case: reclaiming the 50-day average at about $81,700 (Bitcoin.com News), then the 7-day high near $84,778 (CoinGecko).

▲ Resistance: 81,700 · 84,778
▼ Support: 79,146 (levels from Bitcoin.com News (24 Oct), CoinGecko 7-day series)

Outlook

Short term: Range $79,146-81,700 into FOMC (Wed 11:30 PM IST). Microsoft and Alphabet earnings (Thu ~1:30 AM IST) test tech risk appetite.

Medium term: ETF flows were positive for the week to 22 Oct (+$442.7M), then turned to outflows on 22 Oct (-$635.5M) and 23 Oct (-$137.9M). Watch whether flows recover after FOMC.

Risks: Liquidation cascades can overshoot both ways. The two sources disagree on the 22 Oct ETF outflow ($635.6M vs about $322M). The midterm-year seasonal statistic rests on only three cycles.

Upcoming events for Bitcoin (IST)

Wed 28 Oct

Thu 29 Oct

Fri 30 Oct

Latest Bitcoin news

1Trump & US policy25-26 Oct 2026 (Reuters 26 Oct 9:56 AM IST)

Trump rules out an Iran strike "today", weighs "finish it off" vs "deal"; Qatar mediates and oil falls ~2% before paring

What it meansThe weekend strike did not happen and mediation is active, so oil gave back about 2% and gold bounced. Trump frames it as strike-or-deal, so oil, gold, CAD and JPY stay headline-driven into the 3 Nov midterms.

Market reactionBy 9:56 AM IST: Brent -1.89% to $114.51, WTI -2.16% to $101.04 (Reuters); IANS had WTI $100.69 (-2.49%). Gold +0.5% to $4,014.49 by 2:54 PM IST as lower oil eased inflation fears (Reuters). US futures at 2:16 PM IST: Dow +0.32% near 52,560, S&P 500 +0.14% (FXStreet). By 4:35 PM IST WTI was about $100.39 and gold about $4,016 (FXStreet). WTI was still about $101.02 (-2.18%) at ~9:10 PM IST, then pared the drop to about $102.77 (-0.48%) by ~10:10 PM IST (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance had December WTI $102.98, -0.28%).

Next 24 hours
Oil premium trimmed early, then mostly rebuilt by the US afternoon; headline whipsaw risk stays high.
2 to 5 days
Strike-or-deal binary into 3 Nov.
2 to 12 weeks
Post-midterm strike risk remains.
Read the full report

Leaving the White House on 25 Oct, Trump said "there will not be a strike today" and, asked whether strikes could resume, "Would I tell you that?" Later he said "There's a possibility I will" and also "a possibility we'll have a nice, big, beautiful agreement", while doubting Iran would hold a deal. Reuters reported Qatari mediators in Tehran. Earlier (23 Oct rally) he said the US "may do another little" round. On Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures he said: "Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" (24NewsHD). On 26 Oct Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence head Ibrahim Kalin were in Tehran for security talks, after Qatari mediators arrived on 25 Oct (AP).

WTIUSDCADUSDJPYXAUUSDBTCUSDUS30US500Source: Gulf News; Reuters via Arab News

2Geopolitics23-25 Oct 2026

Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites; Aramco evacuates Dhahran HQ

What it meansSaudi oil infrastructure is now a target. Oil carries a war premium, and any confirmed damage means a gap higher. A confirmed no-damage statement means the premium fades.

Market reactionBrent +3.14% to $116.72 (6-month high, +6.24% w/w); WTI +3.82% to $103.27; gold under $4,000

Next 24 hours
The Monday open saw oil ease on Iran headlines instead of gapping higher.
2 to 5 days
Follow-through only if new strikes or physical disruption follow.
2 to 12 weeks
Persists only with real supply loss.
Read the full report

Over 48 hours to 24 Oct the Houthis claimed attacks on the Saudi Defence Ministry, Dammam airport (two killed), an Aramco site in Yanbu and Abha airport, and Aramco evacuated its Dhahran HQ. On 25 Oct the coalition intercepted a missile aimed at Riyadh and 10 ballistic missiles over the south; debris injured two people (Saudi Press Agency). No production loss has been confirmed.

WTIUSDCADUSDJPYXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: The National

3Rates & central banks22-23 Oct 2026

Fed repricing: October hike odds near 9%, December hike about 80% priced

What it meansThere will be no hike on Wednesday, but a December hike is almost fully priced. Warsh's tone decides the next move in yields, the USD, gold and BTC.

Market reaction10-year Treasury yield back below 5% on 26 Oct after ending last week at 5% (FXStreet); dollar index 101.80, little changed (Reuters)

Next 24 hours
A whipsaw is likely between the statement and the presser.
2 to 5 days
The dot plot is not due at this meeting; guidance is the only signal.
2 to 12 weeks
It decides the December path.
Read the full report

The Fed funds range is 3.75-4.00% after a September hike (12-0 vote). In a Reuters poll (16-20 Oct), 94 of 100 economists expect a hold on 28 Oct and all 100 expect a December hike. September CPI was 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%).

All USD pairsXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: Reuters via MarketScreener; FXStreet

4Market fundamentals22-23 Oct 2026 (CryptoTicker 23 Oct 11:45 AM IST)

AI-spending doubts hit tech: Nasdaq 100 -3% on 22 Oct after Meta results and Huang comments

What it meansAI-spending doubts flipped markets to risk-off. That helps the yen and franc and hurts Bitcoin and AUD/NZD.

Market reactionNasdaq 100 -3% on 22 Oct (The Telegraph); S&P 500 -1.2% to 7,663 (Yahoo Finance)

Next 24 hours
Haven currencies stay bid.
2 to 5 days
Mean reversion is possible if earnings stabilise.
2 to 12 weeks
A lasting capex cut would weigh on growth and on risk assets.
Read the full report

Several megacap tech companies missed expectations, and Tesla cut its spending forecast, which markets read as a warning on the AI and data-centre investment cycle. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% on Thursday; the Dow fell 1.2% on Friday.

US100US500USDJPYUSDCHFBTCUSDAUDUSDNZDUSDSource: The Telegraph via AOL; Yahoo Finance

8Flows & positioning24-25 Oct 2026

Spot Bitcoin ETFs post their largest outflow day since June

What it meansBig ETF money left Bitcoin on 22-23 Oct ($773M). Watch whether flows turn back to inflows after FOMC.

Market reactionBTC fell from about $84,025 (21 Oct) to $81,307 (22 Oct), then about $80,483 by Saturday

Next 24 hours
Weekly close test.
2 to 5 days
Flow direction for the week.
2 to 12 weeks
Liquidity and the Fed path.
Read the full report

US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $635.5M on 22 Oct (IBIT -$254.1M, FBTC -$217.5M), the largest since 25 June, and $137.9M on 23 Oct: $773M in two days. The week to 22 Oct was still +$442.7M net.

BTCUSDSource: 24/7 Wall St. (SoSoValue)

9Technical break25 Oct 2026, 12:00 AM IST

Weekend crypto flush: BTC hits a 1-month low of $79,146, then rebounds

What it meansBTC swept its support and reclaimed it. A daily close below $79,146 would turn that into a real breakdown.

Market reactionBTC low $79,146 on Sat 24 Oct, then back above $80,000 (Bitcoin.com News); about $689M of long liquidations (CoinGlass)

Next 24 hours
Monday: back under $80,000 (about $79,600, CoinGecko and CoinDesk, ~7:20 PM IST); the intraday low was under $79,300 (Quartz), still above $79,146.
2 to 5 days
Holding above $79,146 points to a range; losing it targets $77,876.
2 to 12 weeks
Fed path and ETF demand.
Read the full report

Bitcoin fell to about $79,146 on Saturday, its weakest in more than a month, then traded back above $80,000. CoinGlass counted over $810M of crypto liquidations in 24 hours, about $689M of them longs (Bitcoin.com News). Price also slipped under its 50-day average near $81,700.

BTCUSDSource: Bitcoin.com News (CoinGlass data)

Market information only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold, oil, crypto, stocks and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. Research is gathered by AI from the linked sources and can contain mistakes; check the source. Prices are snapshots with the time shown. Risk disclaimer.