6:00 PMIST
GBP/USD news and analysis today
Updated Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:15 PM IST
Pound / Dollar 1.3349
Yen-led risk-off pulled GBP/JPY below 210; GBP/USD fell just 0.19% on 22 Oct
◆ Neutral until UK Budget
What is driving GBP/USD
UK September CPI came in at 3.5% vs 3.4% expected (BoE rate 3.75%). Sterling's reaction to the CPI print was not found in sources, so it is context only.
Fundamental view
GBP: inflation is above forecast and MUFG leans bullish on sterling barring a negative Budget surprise. USD: as above. The edge is small.
Technical view
Bull case needs a decisive break above last week's 1.3420 high after the Budget (FXStreet). Bear case: a close below the 20-day EMA near 1.3323 (FXStreet).
▲ Resistance: 1.3420
▼ Support: 1.3323
Outlook
Short term: The UK Budget (Healey's first) is at 6:00 PM IST Wed (HM Treasury), then FOMC at 11:30 PM IST; expect wide spreads.
Medium term: Fiscal credibility and BoE path decide the trend.
Risks: Speculators are heavily net short GBP (-106,964 contracts), so a short squeeze is possible either way.
Upcoming events for GBP/USD (IST)
Tue 27 Oct
7:30 PMIST
●○○ MediumUSD pairsXAUUSDUS30US500US100
US CB Consumer Confidence (Oct; fc 80.5, prev 81.9)
Trade through it at reduced size
Wed 28 Oct
6:00 PMIST
11:30 PMIST
●●● CriticalAll instrumentsincl. US30US500US100
FOMC decision (3.75-4.00%; hold expected)
The key catalyst of the week; no new risk beforehand
Thu 29 Oct
12:00 AMIST
●●● CriticalAll instrumentsincl. US30US500US100
Fed Chair Warsh press conference
First move often reverses here
6:00 PMIST
●●○ HighUSD pairsXAUUSDBTCUSDUS30US500US100
US Q3 GDP (fc 3.2%, prev 2.2%) + September core PCE (fc 0.3% m/m, prev 0.2%) + jobless claims
Wait for release
Fri 30 Oct
6:00 PMIST
●○○ MediumUSD pairsUSDCADXAUUSDUS500
US Employment Cost Index Q3 (fc 0.8%, prev 0.9%) + Canada GDP (fc 0.2% m/m)
Wage-inflation read for the December hike
Mon 2 Nov
8:30 PMIST
●○○ MediumUSD pairsXAUUSDUS30US500
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct); first release after US clocks change
US midterms follow on Tue 3 Nov
Latest GBP/USD news
3Rates & central banks22-23 Oct 2026
Fed repricing: October hike odds near 9%, December hike about 80% priced
What it meansThere will be no hike on Wednesday, but a December hike is almost fully priced. Warsh's tone decides the next move in yields, the USD, gold and BTC.
Market reaction10-year Treasury yield back below 5% on 26 Oct after ending last week at 5% (FXStreet); dollar index 101.80, little changed (Reuters)
- Next 24 hours
- A whipsaw is likely between the statement and the presser.
- 2 to 5 days
- The dot plot is not due at this meeting; guidance is the only signal.
- 2 to 12 weeks
- It decides the December path.
Read the full report
The Fed funds range is 3.75-4.00% after a September hike (12-0 vote). In a Reuters poll (16-20 Oct), 94 of 100 economists expect a hold on 28 Oct and all 100 expect a December hike. September CPI was 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%).
All USD pairsXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: Reuters via MarketScreener; FXStreet
Market information only, not financial advice. Trading forex, gold, oil, crypto, stocks and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. Research is gathered by AI from the linked sources and can contain mistakes; check the source. Prices are snapshots with the time shown. Risk disclaimer.