USD/CAD news and analysis today

Updated Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:15 PM IST

Dollar / Loonie 1.4025 at Mon 26 Oct, ~10:10 PM IST (Trading Economics quote) · Trading Economics

CAD rallied for seven straight sessions on oil, after the softer Canada CPI's initial CAD drop reversed

▼ Bearish-leaning

Research view · Event-driven (BoC Wed) · confidence Low. Last week: 7 straight daily declines

What is driving USD/CAD

Canada CPI (19 Oct) came in at 3.1% vs 3.2% expected with cooler core, sending USD/CAD from 1.4075 to 1.4106. The oil rally then reversed that move.

Fundamental view

CAD: supported by oil, which fell about 2% on Monday. The BoC is expected to hike to 2.50% (Reuters says the BoC is expected to raise rates this week). USD: soft on the tech sell-off.

Technical view

Broker-sourced levels were removed and no non-broker levels were found this run. Context: the 19 Oct CPI spike took the pair to 1.4106 before seven straight declines (investingLive).

▲ Resistance:
▼ Support: (levels from No non-broker levels this run)

Outlook

Short term: The BoC (7:15 PM IST Wed) and FOMC (11:30 PM IST) are four hours apart. Oil headlines add risk.

Medium term: It depends on oil holding above $100 and on the BoC's path.

Risks: Oil reversing would remove CAD's main support. With a hike mostly priced, a BoC hold would hit CAD hard. US tariff changes on Canadian goods take effect 30 Oct.

Upcoming events for USD/CAD (IST)

Tue 27 Oct

Wed 28 Oct

Thu 29 Oct

Fri 30 Oct

Mon 2 Nov

Latest USD/CAD news

1Trump & US policy25-26 Oct 2026 (Reuters 26 Oct 9:56 AM IST)

Trump rules out an Iran strike "today", weighs "finish it off" vs "deal"; Qatar mediates and oil falls ~2% before paring

What it meansThe weekend strike did not happen and mediation is active, so oil gave back about 2% and gold bounced. Trump frames it as strike-or-deal, so oil, gold, CAD and JPY stay headline-driven into the 3 Nov midterms.

Market reactionBy 9:56 AM IST: Brent -1.89% to $114.51, WTI -2.16% to $101.04 (Reuters); IANS had WTI $100.69 (-2.49%). Gold +0.5% to $4,014.49 by 2:54 PM IST as lower oil eased inflation fears (Reuters). US futures at 2:16 PM IST: Dow +0.32% near 52,560, S&P 500 +0.14% (FXStreet). By 4:35 PM IST WTI was about $100.39 and gold about $4,016 (FXStreet). WTI was still about $101.02 (-2.18%) at ~9:10 PM IST, then pared the drop to about $102.77 (-0.48%) by ~10:10 PM IST (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance had December WTI $102.98, -0.28%).

Next 24 hours
Oil premium trimmed early, then mostly rebuilt by the US afternoon; headline whipsaw risk stays high.
2 to 5 days
Strike-or-deal binary into 3 Nov.
2 to 12 weeks
Post-midterm strike risk remains.
Read the full report

Leaving the White House on 25 Oct, Trump said "there will not be a strike today" and, asked whether strikes could resume, "Would I tell you that?" Later he said "There's a possibility I will" and also "a possibility we'll have a nice, big, beautiful agreement", while doubting Iran would hold a deal. Reuters reported Qatari mediators in Tehran. Earlier (23 Oct rally) he said the US "may do another little" round. On Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures he said: "Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" (24NewsHD). On 26 Oct Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence head Ibrahim Kalin were in Tehran for security talks, after Qatari mediators arrived on 25 Oct (AP).

WTIUSDCADUSDJPYXAUUSDBTCUSDUS30US500Source: Gulf News; Reuters via Arab News

2Geopolitics23-25 Oct 2026

Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites; Aramco evacuates Dhahran HQ

What it meansSaudi oil infrastructure is now a target. Oil carries a war premium, and any confirmed damage means a gap higher. A confirmed no-damage statement means the premium fades.

Market reactionBrent +3.14% to $116.72 (6-month high, +6.24% w/w); WTI +3.82% to $103.27; gold under $4,000

Next 24 hours
The Monday open saw oil ease on Iran headlines instead of gapping higher.
2 to 5 days
Follow-through only if new strikes or physical disruption follow.
2 to 12 weeks
Persists only with real supply loss.
Read the full report

Over 48 hours to 24 Oct the Houthis claimed attacks on the Saudi Defence Ministry, Dammam airport (two killed), an Aramco site in Yanbu and Abha airport, and Aramco evacuated its Dhahran HQ. On 25 Oct the coalition intercepted a missile aimed at Riyadh and 10 ballistic missiles over the south; debris injured two people (Saudi Press Agency). No production loss has been confirmed.

WTIUSDCADUSDJPYXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: The National

3Rates & central banks22-23 Oct 2026

Fed repricing: October hike odds near 9%, December hike about 80% priced

What it meansThere will be no hike on Wednesday, but a December hike is almost fully priced. Warsh's tone decides the next move in yields, the USD, gold and BTC.

Market reaction10-year Treasury yield back below 5% on 26 Oct after ending last week at 5% (FXStreet); dollar index 101.80, little changed (Reuters)

Next 24 hours
A whipsaw is likely between the statement and the presser.
2 to 5 days
The dot plot is not due at this meeting; guidance is the only signal.
2 to 12 weeks
It decides the December path.
Read the full report

The Fed funds range is 3.75-4.00% after a September hike (12-0 vote). In a Reuters poll (16-20 Oct), 94 of 100 economists expect a hold on 28 Oct and all 100 expect a December hike. September CPI was 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%).

All USD pairsXAUUSDBTCUSDSource: Reuters via MarketScreener; FXStreet

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